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Saturday 4th March Picks

Over 2.5 goal match picks by Z_tips

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I've picked out three games from three different leagues for Saturday where the stats suggest some great value for the over 2.5 goal market. All bets are even money (2.0) or greater.

Karlsruhe v Hannover

Karlsruhe v Hannover looks a great chance for some goals given the criteria I use, which I have built up over many years as a tipster. Looking at Karlsruhe, 4 of their last 6 matches the overs has landed and at home 5 of their last 6. As for Hannover, 4 of their last 6 have gone over and for away fixtures, 5 of their last 6.

When looking for value on the overs market, I like to find a match-up that features two teams that are both capable of scoring and conceding. Karlsruhe at home have scored and conceded in 5 of the last 6 games here and Hannover away have scored in 5 from 6 and conceded in all of them.

Even better, head to head statistics reveal that four of their last five meetings have gone over easy. Anything evens or above is a great price for this game.

My selection for Karlsruhe v Hannover

Over 2.5 goals at Marathonbet, 2.08

Accrington v Barnet

Accrington are in good goal scoring form and 4 of the last 6 matches that they have played, the overs has landed. Barnets away scoring form has been very impressive - they have scored in all 6 of their last games away. In 17 matches away they have scored in all of them (26 goals in total). They look to be a team that are better suited to playing away (won only 4 home games this season and 7 away).

Head to head statistics adds to the confidence, with the overs bet landing for 4 of the last 6 meetings and the last 4 played here. Looks a good bet.

My selection for Accrington v Barnet

Over 2.5 goals at Betbright, 2.0

Montpellier v Guingamp

Montpellier games have seen plenty of goals of late and the overs has landed in their last 6 games and at home 5 of the last 6. Montpellier scored in all of these and conceded 4 games in a row here. As for Guingamp, 4 of their last 6 games played have gone over and they have conceded in all of those 6 matches. I like that they have played 14 away games so far and scored 16 in total, making an average of just over 1 a game.

The head to head statistics adds to the confidence with 4 of the last 6 meetings between them ending in 3 goals or more. The French league isn't generally reliable for goals, but I trust the stats here and I make this a great bet at evens.

My selection for Montpellier v Guingamp

Over 2.5 goals at Paddy Power, 2.0

Follow Ztips on Twitter and Betminds - a Tipster for over 25 years who lives for Goals.