BetMinds Blog
BetMinds Blog

Articles, News and General Blabberings by the team that brought you the BetMinds Social Tipping Network

Montgomery
Author

Share


Twitter


BetMinds Blog

Premier League Opening Weekend Trends

MontgomeryMontgomery

Historically the opening premier weekend has thrown up some surprises as well as the odd very high scoring match. Put simply some teams, as well as individual players, are more prepared for the campaign than others when that first whistle blows. Lack of fitness and confidence, a lack of team cohesion and over zealousness are just some of the many reasons why sides can under perform. Conversely other teams can make an instant impression through thorough preparation and new signings, unknown to the premier league, can be under estimated leaving them relatively unmarked on the field. There is a lot of feet finding and through that comes potential opportunity.

Below we look to see if we can find value in markets for this weekends matches by analysing results for the opening games in previous premier league seasons.

Analysis

Let’s take a look at the last 7 years worth of results

2010-2011 Season

Total Goals - 26
Both Teams To Score – 30%
Over 2.5 Match Goals – 60%


2011-2012

Total Goals - 18
Both Teams To Score – 40%
Over 2.5 Match Goals – 40%


2012-2013

Total Goals - 27
Both Teams To Score – 30%
Over 2.5 Match Goals – 50%


2013-2014

Total Goals - 26
Both Teams To Score – 30%
Over 2.5 Match Goals – 40%


2014-2015

Total Goals - 26
Both Teams To Score – 60%
Over 2.5 Match Goals – 60%


2015-2016

Total Goals - 28
Both Teams To Score – 50%
Over 2.5 Match Goals – 60%


2016-2017

Total Goals - 28
Both Teams To Score – 80%
Over 2.5 Match Goals – 50%


Lets crunch those numbers

69 Games Total
32 Games Both Team to Score (46.4% average)
36 Games Over 2.5 Match Goals (52.2% average)
Total Goal Average 2.59

Summary - Over the last 7 years, the total goal average over the opening weekend has been lower than the average number of goals scored throughout the entire respective season

At first read this would suggest that tipping the Unders and Both Teams Not To Score markets would be the way to go, but if you're thinking this then you would only be half right. Lets start with the correct part (Both teams not to score). Over the past 7 years 46.4% of opening games have resulted in both teams scoring. The average of both teams scoring across the whole of 2015/16 was 51%, so again the opening weekend suggests a relatively dull affair and that value may lie in betting on both teams not to score for each match. Let's have a look at best prices for the 10 opening games for this market.

Both teams not to score best price by bookmaker

• Arsenal v Leicester BetVictor @ 2.3
• Watford v Liverpool Marathonbet @ 2.06
• Chelsea v Burnley Marathonbet @ 1.68
• Crystal Palace v Huddersfield BetVictor @ 1.92
• Everton v Stoke Marathonbet @ 1.93
• Southampton vs Swansea Ladbrokes @ 1.95
• West Brom v Bournemouth BetVictor @ 2.05
• Brighton v Man City Coral @ 1.95
• Newcastle v Tottenham BetVictor @ 2.2
• Man Utd v West Ham BetVictor @ 1.78

This gives an average best bookmaker price of 1.99 across the 10 games. The statistical average of the previous 7 seasons of both teams not to score is 53.6%, which implies odds of 1.87. Therefore the average available price of 1.99 represents decent value when benchmarked against previous opening weekends.

Both teams not scoring and under 2.5 goals are related markets. Given the above, the logic suggests that over 2.5 goals has a lower statistical chance for the opening weekend than in general. However using previous seasonal data, this correlation does not bear out in practise. Although the goals per match is lower for the opening weekend, the average number of games that end in over 2.5 goals for the opening weekend is almost identical to the matches over the entire season. Last season, over 52.5% of all matches ended in over 2.5 goals, almost identical to the 52.2% of opening games for the previous 7 seasons.

So how can it be that there are markedly less than average number of teams both scoring, yet the number of over 2.5 goals for the opening games is par when compared against the entire season? It comes back to the initial point, some games generate a huge imbalance in quality due to lack of Summer preparation and fitness versus thorough team preparation and in form strikers who can rip defenses apart. This leads some games with teams unable to score while their opponents run rampant.

Looking at bookmaker best prices for Over 2.5 goals for each of the opening games, the average price is 1.95 across the 10 games. When comparing this to the previous 7 seasons 52.2% of games have ended in overs, which implies odds of 1.92. Therefore there is little value to be had in this market.

In summary, both teams not scoring represesnts value while the over 2.5 goal market does not. I will be placing the full 5 units on the Both Teams Not to Score market for each of the 10 opening matches. You can follow my progress on my profile here and if you are signed up, you can follow me to see my future plays.

Good luck and enjoy the opening weekend
Monty

Montgomery
Author

Montgomery

Comments