FA Cup Analysis by Goliath Tipping
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The FA Cup can sometimes be a daunting one with worries about team news and whether both players and managers really want to win the cup enough. However if you dig deep there is always value to be found and this week that value lies in the games featuring the Premier league giants playing on Saturday.
Burnley Vs Lincoln City
Burnley host non-league side Lincoln City at home at 12:30pm. What we’ve learnt so far is Lincoln are no pushovers and to have gotten this far already is a massive achievement. However Burnley have been formidable at home this season, having only lost 3 of their 14 Premier League games at Turf Moor. To put this into perspective, only 3 teams have a better home record this season in Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal (all top 4 teams).
Some more stats:
• In their last 5 home games, Burnley have only conceded 1 goal (Vs Chelsea last time out).
• Burnley have managed to win to nil against Liverpool, Watford, Middlesbrough, Southampton, Sunderland, Bristol City and Leicester at Turf Moor over the last few months.
• The Clarets fans saw a win streak of 7 home games before they drew 1-1 to Chelsea recently which is very impressive.
• They’ve dropped points at home only to Chelsea (draw), Arsenal (loss), Man City (loss) and Swansea on day 1 of the season (loss). Again, extremely impressive.
Burnley are comfortable in the Premier League table and currently sit in 12th, 11 points from the drop. I’d say their season was over, but clearly it isn’t. With this competition being their only chance at silverware, the manager will be pushing his team as far as they can go. I don’t see team selection being an issue and I’m almost certain Sean Dyche will want his side to compete and get themselves into the Quarter Finals.
The last 5 Burnley home games have all had under 2.5 goals scored and there is a fairly good price on offer for this across multiple bookies. I can see Lincoln keeping it tight but not offering much going forward, leaving Burnley to grab 1 or 2 goals and take the win.
I see some nice value in under 2.5 goals but with a home win nonetheless. My prediction is a comfortable 2-0 win.
My selections for Burnley Vs Lincoln City
Burnley win to nil at Paddy Power, 11/10 (2.1)
Under 2.5 match goals at Bet Victor, 5/4 (2.25)
Huddersfield Vs Man City
Both of these sides are currently in form in their respective leagues and have been putting in some solid performances. Man City are capable of a total collapse every now and again, not to say I’m expecting one here but I am expecting goals in this one.
• Huddersfield have only failed to score once at home this season (that’s 16 home games!) and this was against Sheffield Wednesday way back in the middle of October. They have won 12 of these games and have looked good throughout.
• Huddersfield have seen over 2.5 match goals in 10 of the 16 games with 5 in the last 7 games. Their last 5 games home and away have all featured over 2.5 match goals with 3 having over 3.5 covered too.
• In 7 of their last 8 games, Manchester City have managed over 2.5 match goals and away from home is where the majority of goals have come from.
As I mentioned, City are capable of a collapse. They’ve beaten West Ham 0-4, Crystal Palace 0-3, West Ham 0-5 but have also been beaten 4-0 by Everton and 4-2 by Leicester on their travels in the last 8. I can see Huddersfield trying to force the collapse here and this should contribute to the scoring with City having a shaky defence at times. Man City much improved but they will have their Champions League tie at the back of their mind.
My selections for Huddersfield Vs Man City
Over 3.5 goals at William Hill, 13/8 (2.63)
Over 2.5 and BTTS at Coral, 23/20 (2.15)
Wolves Vs Chelsea
The Premier League leaders are not going to let up here. Wolves are sitting 6 points above relegation at the moment and have lost their last 3 games in a row. The cup won’t be at the forefront of their mind, the most important thing for them is to avoid relegation come the end of the season. They have the second worst home form in the Championship (only Wigan are lower). They’ve lost 7 of their last 10 home games.
Chelsea have no European football to think about this season and ultimately they are going to be gunning on all fronts for the domestic FA Cup. Conte may look to rest a couple of players but I can’t see them not committing fully. We all know Chelsea’s squad is incredible; their bench would get in most sides’ starting XI.
• Chelsea beat Brentford 0-4 in the last round.
• Chelsea with the joint best away form in the Premier League this season, conceding 11 goals in 13 games
My selections for Wolves Vs Chelsea
Over 2.5 goals and both teams not to score at William Hill, 4/1 (5.0)
Chelsea win to nil at William Hill, 13/10 (2.3)
That’s it from me; I hope you have enjoyed my insight into the FA Cup betting this weekend. 6 bets, all over evens, good luck!
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